China demand for red meat soft but positive growth in all other key markets

All key red meat export markets, apart from China, showed positive growth during June, according to an analysis from the Meat Industry Association (MIA).

New Zealand exported red meat worth $914 million during the month, a two per cent increase on June 2023.

The US was again the largest market, with exports up 14 per cent to $303m. There were also increases to Japan, up 53 per cent to $61m, the UK up 66 per cent to $53m, and Canada up 94 per cent to $51m.

China was the second largest market but fell 38 per cent to $176m.

MIA chief executive Sirma Karapeeva said that while the China market remains soft, with some recovery expected in 2025, other key markets were seeing positive returns.

“The US was the most valuable sheepmeat market for the month. This was the first time since July 2017 that China hasn’t been the largest market by value for sheepmeat.

“Beef exports to China were also down but overall exports remained steady due to strong demand from the US, Japan and Canada.

“These trends were also reflected in the data for the second quarter and for the year to the end of June with the value of exports down for China but increasing to most other key markets.”

Sheepmeat exports totalled 29,829 tonnes in June, up 22 per cent from a relatively low level last June. Value only increased by eight per cent, to $294m, due to the lower value of exports to China.

The US imported NZ sheepmeat worth $62m, with China dropping by 39 per cent to $52m.

Beef exports increased one per cent by volume to 50,907 tonnes and three per cent by value to $470m.

Beef exports to China were down 44 per cent to $83m but exports to the US rose 16 per cent to $221m, 101 per cent to Japan to $46m and 112 per cent to Canada to $35m.

Fifth quarter exports were unchanged from last year at $150m.

Second quarter results

During the second quarter, overall red meat exports fell by one per cent, to $2.9 billion but the value of most markets increased.

The US was the largest overall market up 17 per cent to $894m, China was down 40 per cent to $638m, Japan increased 77 per cent to $185m and the UK by 56 per cent to $167m.

Sheepmeat volumes increased by four per cent to105,658 tonnes, but value fell four per cent to $1.02bn.

The value of sheepmeat exports to most markets was up compared to quarter 2 2023, apart from China, which was down 44 per cent to $228m.

Beef volumes rose by one per cent to 148,064 tonnes, with value up by three per cent to $1.36bn.

A 42 per cent drop in beef exports to China to $274m was offset by continued good demand in the US, up 17 per cent to $634m, a recovery in exports to Japan, up 133 per cent to $137m, and a big increase in demand from Canada, up 154 per cent to $73m.

Fifth quarter exports were down three per cent to $518m. Decreases in exports of casings and tripe, down 12 per cent to $94m, and meat and bone meal, down 11 per cent to $57m, were partially offset by a large increase in exports of blood products up 92 per cent to $65m.

Results for the year

Overall exports for the 12 months to the end of June, were down seven per cent from 2022/23 to $9.9bn.

China remained the largest market for the year but exports were down 32 per cent to $2.86 bn. It accounted for 29 per cent of all exports compared to 39 per cent last year.

The US took 27 per cent of total exports compared to 21 per cent last year, with an increase of 16 per cent to $2.66bn.

The next three largest markets were Japan, up 13 per cent to $490m, the UK, up 45 per cent to $456m, and Canada, up 58 per cent to $370m.

Sheepmeat volumes increased by three per cent to 389,509 tonnes, but the weak China market saw value fall nine per cent to $3.59bn.

Volumes to China were down 14 per cent to 187,970 tonnes, and the value was down 33 per cent to $1.05bn.

Exports to North America and the UK increased by volume and value. Volumes to the EU were largely unchanged but value fell by 10 per cent.

Beef volumes also increased by three per cent to 511,736 tonnes. However, value fell by four per cent to $4.42bn, largely due to China, where exports were down 35 per cent to $1.27bn.

This was partly offset by growth into the US, up 30 per cent to $1.74bn, Canada up 106 per cent to $209m, and recovery to Japan up 27 per cent to $328m.

The value of beef exports to the US was also significantly higher than to China. While New Zealand exported only 9,000 tonnes more beef to the US compared to China during the year, the exports to the US were worth $470m more, which is highlighted by the respective free on board (FoB) value of $9.29/kg vs $7.12/kg to the two markets.

After a full year of the free trade agreement (FTA) operating, the UK was one of the top 10 beef markets for 2023/24, the ninth largest by volume at 3,881 tonnes and eighth largest by value at $48m.

Fifth quarter exports were worth $1.93bn for the year, down 13 per cent from 2022/23.